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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
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