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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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