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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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