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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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