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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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