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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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