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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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