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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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