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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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