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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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