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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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