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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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