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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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