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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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