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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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