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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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