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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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