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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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