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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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