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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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