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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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