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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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