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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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