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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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