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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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