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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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