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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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