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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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