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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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