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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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