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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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