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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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