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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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