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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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