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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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