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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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