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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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