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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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