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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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