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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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