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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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