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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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