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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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