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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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