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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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