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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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