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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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