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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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