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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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