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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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